Ann: Minbos Investor Presentation - Angola Rising, page-177

These presentation slides are usually just a summary and slideshow of a presentation given in person at a seminar etc. More details are often provided verbally but I don't know if that was the case with this one. It might be intentionally vague on export volumes because they don't yet know with enough certainly how much they might be exporting.
They gave us specifics on the big upgrade to the expected post Carrinho offtake sales which suggests a very big jump in early cashflows to something similar to year six in the DFS estimates. That is big news IMO.
We probably need to wait until the company secures export agreements to get any details on export volumes and potential cashflow/margins on the exported volumes. They obviously expect a significant amount though if they foresee the need to an early move to doubling capacity.
I'm not as interested yet on phosphate exports. I'm more interested in the Angola opportunity where our product is more suitable than competing water soluble products for various reasons. Eg much lower production cost vs similar performance, lower transport cost, local product helping local economy, less P fixing in Angolan soil types than water soluble products, price linked to TSP rather than Phosphate (I have been bullish on TSP price from here medium term and bearish on phosphate rock price longer term).
So I am more than happy with the big increase in guidance given in the post Carrinho sales over the DFS expectations on our high margin fertiliser product for Angola. That will provide a big boost to the MNB early year's valuations. Exports are a bonus that have probably helped secure the IDC funding so have been great from that perspective. We'll have to wait to see what they might add to the bottom line but beyond the Angolan phosphate fertiliser product, the green ammonia project is where I think the company will add the most value for shareholders. 44c plus short term on the Angolan phosphate fertiliser project using the base case TSP price and a very low market cap to after tax cash flow multiple of just four. 66c plus on a realistic multiple of six and potentially much more than that on the green ammonia project further out to push the sp to well over $1 medium to longer term. The only remaining barrier to 44-66c is completion of finance. I don't see that as a barrier too difficult to break but it is taking longer than any of us would have liked and that has kept the sp down.
Completion of finance should be a big buy signal for a very rapid rerate, especially given the big valuation add of last months upgraded guidance. Lindsay gave a Mining.com interview last month reiterating production mid year.