Ann: Minbos Investor Presentation - Angola Rising, page-258

"Imagine funding the GA with a CAPEX of €365-€496M."

It might not be any more difficult at all if done with a large JV partner. Either the JV partner could pay our share of capex in return for close to 50% ownership leaving MNB with no capital to raise, or the partner could help with organising debt funding if we have some to raise as well. We should also have a significant amount of cash saved up from probably at least 2 years of the phosphate project cash flow. It could be over A$150mill based on the recently updated guidance. Possibly over A$200mill if it's 3 years away from financing. Those numbers might be conservative based on numbers crunched in my post yesterday 72009016
Without a JV partner, having steady cash flow from the phosphate project, a big deposit and a strong GA project DFS should make a big difference.
Getting this phosphate project operational will be a game changer for the company and clearly, for investor confidence from this level.
That's why I believe this year will be a big year for this stock.
It only takes a few holders to have doubts and sell part holdings with low volume stocks to affect the sp like we have seen.
It won't take much to see a much higher sp on much larger volumes when the finance is completed and construction begins.
The chart below shows that the rallies are usually much sharper than the corrections on this stock and this time it should be much more so given the importance of this final milestone.
This morning, CBE announced a cash injection of $500,000 from BHP and access to their expertise in exploration. The mc doubled from around $12 mill to $25 mill on that news in an hour. That seems like an over-reaction to me but shows what a change of sentiment can do to an oversold stock.
Right now it's a waiting game as the MNB price has drifted lower due to the combination of doubts through the delays and an ongoing bear market in small caps. Sentiment has been terrible on smaller and also larger lithium stocks, small and large nickle stocks, and graphite stocks. Anything battery related actually and that sentiment has spread throughout most of the small cap sector.
MNB has a captive market with a clear advantage over imported products, in particular a much lower cost for a similar benefit for its phosphate fertiliser and a TSP price much more stable than the lithium price. The green ammonia project also has a big advantage with its 1.1c electricity cost. It's hard to overstate the importance of that. Indonesia has rapidly moved to supplying over 50% of global nickel and in doing so it has smashed the nickel price. It was able to out-compete other nickel operations because of its cheap coal fired electricity at around 6c/kw. Minbos has 200MW of clean, green and reliable hydro electricity at just 1.1c/kw secured for 25 years. 1.1c versus a relatively very low cost Indonesian price of 6c. That's extremely low cost electricity for MNB and it is reliable around the clock. The GA project will go into production IMO. I have no doubts about that.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/19/indonesia-bid-ev-nickel-supremacy-doomed-failure/