What false hopes? Be specific.
"Most who have bought since 2021 highs are down significantly "
Obviously - that was a spike, multi year high. Very few, if any, long term holders bought any where near that spike high. That's a loss for those few unlucky traders that were chasing momentum and managed to buy the spike high. Basing wealth destruction claims on spike highs and correction lows is a completely flawed argument. Look at the chart and averaged out prices. Most long term holders are strongly up. That's glaringly obvious. Some could be down if they bought only around two years ago or during times of higher prices and lightened up into corrections. Not the usual strategy for long term investors I would hope. Most of us should be on strong profits if holding 3 years or more or if buying low and taking part profits high.
"Shareholders have been severely diluted in recent years and imo this will continue"
Your opinion that "severe dilution" will continue is based on what? It is just another unsubstantiated opinion.
The reality is that the company only needs another $US12mill. Call it $15mill. They have stated that they are pursuing other non-dilutionary funding after negotiating the first US$14mill recently. So there may be no further dilution at least until they develop the green ammonia. Developing that project should see the sp go much higher even if issuing more shares to help fund it. Cr's can be value adding when put to good use like developing good projects. No point speculating on that yet though. For all we know the company gives up a 50% share in return for the partner paying our share of capex or a large part of our capex and MNB gets a loan for the remainder. A loan will be easier to negotiate when pulling in A$35mill per year in positive cash flow. Future cr's are purely speculation and certainly don't stop a sp from rising when used to develop good projects.
As for that "severe dilution" as you put it, that hasn't stopped the sp rising four fold in four years and that gain is despite a severe small cap bear market. Bear markets don't last forever and this one has been severe enough that it could end soon.
The market cap is only $75mill and that's diluted for outstanding options and despite whatever past dilution we have had. First full year's earnings - not in my opinion but according to the DFS - is forecast to be US$23mill. That's A$35mill forecast for the first full year's earnings. That justifies a market cap of around A$300-350mill on a ten times after tax cash surplus multiple at that time. That's equivalent to the DFS after tax NPV. Considering the forecast strong growth going forward, a multiple of 10 is still cheap. A$350 mill is 4.66 times the current mc, equivalent to a sp of 40c and that is factoring in all outstanding options being exercised. If they are exercised that adds another $6mill to the cash balance.
That's not false hope that I'm posting. It's the reality that will likely follow successful finalisation of funding.
The DFS is not someone's unsubstantiated opinion. It's a detailed assessment of the likely economics of the project prepared by an external consulting firm and completed to a standard that banks can use as part of their due diligence.
It's much more important than my or your opinions.
The DFS numbers, the NPV in the hundreds of millions and the first full year's earnings of US$23mill easily stack up compared to the reaming US$12mill needed to fully construct. Total debt of US$26mill is only marginally higher than the first full year's earnings. So there is very good reason to expect funding will be secured.
You call it false hope. I call it logical thinking.
