Of those $9million worth of shares that didn't go to cornerstone and directors, we could have a wild guess that half might be sold shorter term, so $4.5mill or 41 million shares in total. Of those, any selling could be spread relatively thinly because of the following; Some participants would already have held shares and may have already sold. Between yesterday and today, over 10mill were traded. Maybe 5-7 million were cr participants selling? That might leave somewhere around 35mill still left to sell shorter term. Another 5 million might be sold over the next week before tranche 1 is allocated? Others that didn't hold any previously, haven't been allocated shares yet and will receive around 60% this month in tranche one and the rest in late August in tranche two. So there may be another 17mill left to come to market this month and then 13mill in late August when tranche two is allocated. If the DFS hasn't been released before tranche two, then it will be very close to being released and sellers might be more patient and buyers push the sp much higher. If the DFS is released ahead of tranche two, it might be good enough that cr participants decide to buy more rather than sell or they sell and get swamped by buyers. This spreading out of potential selling by cr participants might be much easier for the market to absorb without affecting the sp as much as if they were all available to sell in one hit. With a bit of luck, maybe more will be held long term than the above assumption. All guess work, just thinking out loud.
