Yes, I think it will be conservative if the DFS sales volume...

"Chuck hit the nail on the head long term investors could snap up the shares when project up and running"
Problem with that is that the sp will likely have doubled by then. Some investors might prefer that as they feel there is less risk. I wouldn't agree with that though. While funding risk is removed, you would then have increased share price risk as there is an increased risk of a profit taking correction than there is now while the stock is forming a new base ahead of that funding news. Of course, it might not correct at that time and it might keep going up to the 30's instead but then that's even better gains for those in now.
It's all about each investor's risk profile but the more risk you're prepared to take, the better the potential reward.

Yes, I think it will be conservative if the DFS sales volume assumptions are met. The phosphate alone should easily give us a ten times return if those targets are met. Then there are the other two projects for further upside potential.
For any new investors wondering how the phosphate could generate such large investor returns, just multiply the forecast annual cash profits in the table below by a factor of ten to get potential market cap targets which increase each year with earnings. The longer we hold, the higher the mc and sp should go as long as those targets keep getting met. Those steadily growing numbers are quite different from what you normally see in a DFS where the forecast profits ramp up over the first couple of years and then steady off. These numbers keep rising on the back of a strongly growing local agricultural sector off a very low base. That should allow the sp to keep rising strongly and steadily for at least ten years.
The figures in the chart below are USD. By year 6, cash profit hits US62mill or A$95mill/y and two years later it jumps to US$82mill or A$125mill. The following 11 years it averages around US$110mill or A$169mill per year. That could see the market cap rise to A$1.7billion or around 17 times the current market cap. That could take around ten years but I like a stock that offers a steadily and strongly growing earnings. Let's hope they deliver but even if they fall a bit short, that's still big upside on offer. Also, any potential shortfall on the earnings below could be more than offset by the green ammonia earnings assuming that goes ahead. The green ammonia also gives us the potential to see higher combined profits than those below brought forward.
Another variable is the AUD. I have read a number of opinions recently that are forecasting a dollar well below 50c. That sounds crazy but it's been around 50c a couple of times previously. Why might it go below 50c this time?
First is thermal coal. The world is gradually weaning itself off thermal coal which was our second largest export behind iron ore. Coal plus gas add up to over $80bill of our exports. Big problem for us economically if the volumes on those steadily drop off long term.
"The most recent exports are led by Iron Ore ($118B), Coal Briquettes ($54.3B), Petroleum Gas ($39.2B), Gold ($17.6B), and Wheat ($7.36B)."
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/aus
Then there is the China property bubble. If demand and pricing for our iron ore falls then that's another big hit to our exports. Less exports equates to a lower AUD.
Then there's interest rate differentials with interest rates higher in the US higher than here putting further pressure on the AUD.
If you ask me, I think they are right that the AUD will fall below 50c.
If it does, the best way to protect yourself that I know of is to invest in overseas stocks or Australian stocks that generate their earnings overseas in USD.
Take the US$82mill forecast from below as an example. At today's exchange rate that would be around A$125mill. At 47c that jumps to A$174mill.
Big difference.