I first bought into MNB 9 months ago, it can be a frustrating stock as the Company is a bit slack on updates and some of the projects are hard to understand, for example you can’t look up the price of BPR, the last Presentation is dated October 2022.
Having said the above, I think it’s prospects are fantastic and in 6-12-18 months time investors will be wishing they loaded up at present prices
Only 5 months until the completion of the Capinda Phosphate project.
Again why wasn’t that announced with the EPCM contract - you need to view a video of a presentation very few people would be aware of to find that out.
Chuk has done a good job of keeping HC readers up to date on how much money this will make - it makes our present Market Cap look ridiculous for a project 5 months away.
The DFS base case was based on $292/t based on TSP price of $422/t so about a 70.5% ratio (as Chuk has posted in the past)
The May World Bank TSP price was $485.63/t implying a BPR price of $342 - well above the DFS Base Case.
(TSP = Tripple Super Phosphate, BPR = Beneficiated Phosphate Rock (what we’ll sell))
They’ve said in the last Activities report they are pursuing non equity finance for the remaining US$30m to complete the plant. I think outstanding finance is another reason investors shy away from this stock. My comment is they wouldn’t have signed the EPCM contract and commenced site construction if they weren’t confident of finance. The $25m debt term sheet will go most of the way to covering that, can’t see these investors let the project stall over just $5m
The Phosphate plant is a simple operation, should return good cash flow and will only grow, the capex to go to stage 2 is quite low.
Long term I think the driver of the share price will be the Green Ammonia (Hydrogen), Power at 1.1c a kwh is an insane price, over 20c here in Aust and it isn’t green (hydro). The study results released last April IMO made implementing the project a no brainer. Speaking of that study, they said the next step was to do a PFS with the timeline for the study “to be announced in coming weeks”. I might have missed it, but to my knowledge they haven’t announced anything re the PFS?
They also have a Strategic Cooperation Agreement for a Ferro Phosphate and Lithium Ferro Phosphate (LFP Projects).
So we’re covering Phosphate fertilizers, explosives, Green Ammonia and LFP Lithium Batteries which are starting to take the lions share of EV batteries in China.
No wonder they have the World’s biggest Battery Anode maker as an investor/partner.
Then there is the recently announced Yellow Phosphorus study I won’t go into.
All of the above for a Market Cap of $95m
