Ann: Minbos to Pursue Yellow Phosphorus Potential in Stage 2, page-171

but didn't specify how "probable" it is: high, medium, low?
They would be quite unlikely to make that statement without a reasonable level of confidence that they would succeed. It is not at all analogous to a waitress pursuing a Hollywood job.
I remember the statement a few years ago that they wouldn't need a cr but I think Lindsay had credible information from talking to the IFDC that that was the case at that time. Things can change and that one did. I guess they would want to be much more confident this time around.
I also remember around that time Lindsay hinting at something very big going on the background. They later revealed the green ammonia opportunity and have advanced that project with the power agreement and land allocation, the appointment of Stamicarbon and the delivery of the green ammonia technical study showing very low operating costs and a very affordable capex for a project of that size. That promise of something big is certainly being delivered and it's being followed up by an equally promising looking yellow phosphate project. Those two projects will have added much more long term value than the modest sized cr's would have diluted us by.
Some investors appear to have short term strategies that ignore the long and even near term potential and value of the company. See a rising sp and jump in on the bandwagon. See a falling sp and bail out, extending the fall. That's the small cap space for you.