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This is the part where I don't get: how is the delay of the...

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riverflows

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01/06/23

11:43

Post #: 68076246
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

I didn't attend but I spoke to Lindsay tonight after the AGM over the phone. Unfortunately there was nothing concrete to update us with just yet but he was happy to discuss anything that had previously been announced.
Regarding start of production; construction has been delayed beyond what they expected even though there have been some minor preliminary earthworks. However, he did say he is not expecting the delay of the start of construction to affect the timing of production by any significant amount. Inauguration is still planned on 11th of November.
He also confirmed what was previously announced is still the case with regard to funding. They continue to expect to raise the balance as non equity funding. The amount previously announced was US$30mill. Still not expecting to need a cr. He said they don't want to put out an update with what has already been announced and they will make an announcement as soon as things that they are working on get locked in. So while we would like more regular updates, I guess they want something concrete to announce before doing so. If they do otherwise, they get called fluff announcements anyway.
I also asked if there had been any further cost escalations as I had wondered if that might have been a reason for the delays in the start of construction. He said there have been no changes to capital requirements since the US$10mill reduction in capex.
So while I was preparing myself for perhaps a small to moderate cr that wouldn't be too dilutive, it looks unlikely.
I also was allowing for a 1-3 month delay to production and that looks over-cautious as well. Basically whatever the market thinks it's pricing in is probably well overdone. Once everything is announced, the market should be heading back into the high teens and then beyond because nothing has actually changed other than a delay to construction which isn't expected to affect the start of production with any significant delay.
While it's been hard to get hold of Lindsay lately, I would expect anyone at the AGM that managed to talk to Lindsay asking what I asked would have got the same answers.

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This is the part where I don't get: how is the delay of the start of construction not affecting the timing of production? I would have thought the production timing will be delayed by at least the delay in the start of construction? Is my rudimentary math wrong somewhere?

I have been really struggling with MNB's logics when it comes to timeline. Delay in X won't lead to delay in Y, which won't lead to delay in Z, and yet we keep having delays in X, Y, and Z, starting from DFS to everything after.

MNB Price at posting: 9.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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