"unlike guru chuz i never predict a sp its the job of a market atm the market sees through all the pumping from this poster"
First; who said I was any sort of guru?
Second; is it pumping if I am honestly very positive on a stock and post what it is that makes me positive on it? Strong value upside from a low capex, high margin initial phosphate fertiliser project with a captive local market. Good upside on that project from a cornerstone investor wanting another 100,000tpa phosphate per year (that upside not in the DFS numbers below). Very strong blue sky upside on what is now, not one, but two other projects with the world's cheapest green electricity making probably both likely highly economically compelling projects. A tech study by a major player, Stamicabon, confirming very low GA project costs (which should be no surprise with 1.1c/kwh electricity locked in for 25 years). How is stating facts pumping? If it's looking like very strong upside from growth and DFS cash flow forecasts then the sp probably will go much higher. Traders driving the sp all over the place doesn't change the fundamentals of the projects or the value on offer or the likely long term sp. Those targets are not set in stone but they never are with any other company either.
I didn't make the numbers up for the phosphate project, they are from the DFS which was put together with input from a very respectable organisation - the IFDC which made the sales forecasts on expected sales growth, based on their successes elsewhere in growing agriculture markets. They should know their stuff better than any of us.
Should we believe the market right now in what might be a case of the blind leading the blind into a deep correction at a typically seasonal weak point? Or should we put more importance on the DFS numbers? Do the numbers below suggest a mc of $80mill is appropriate or far too low? Each investor can make up their own mind. The plant is on site ready for assembly. The project will go ahead. Maybe delayed? Maybe. Maybe another cr? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, when the company is pulling A$90mill (and growing) each year, is the market going to care at that time about what some might be upset about now? I'd say there is an almost 100% probability that when the company is pulling in A$90mill, $100mill and more per year, the sp will be MANY multiples of where it is now and the green ammonia project will almost certainly be going ahead with that sort of cash flow to back it up. Current perceptions of credibility won't make any difference at all at that time, regardless of whether another cr is needed or not. Call it pumping if you want. I call it looking at the currently available info and drawing reasonable conclusions. Things will change along the way, especially commodity prices and no one can pick that. They might be lower than the base case assumptions that give us the below forecasts. They could be much higher too. Inflation does that.
Is it me pumping the stock up on verifiable facts and figures, or is it others ramping the stock down on pure speculation during weakness right now?
Third; this stock went to down to 5c in 2021 before reversing sharply and quadrupling to peak at 21c. You could have said the market saw through the pumping as it sold to 5c in 2021 but what did they actually see? They saw nothing. Sweet FA. There was no negative news to justify 5c and the stock then quadrupled in just four months on plenty of positive news flow. Why do people always assume the market knows something during corrections? Can we quadruple from here in four months or six months or 12 months. I can't see why not based on the DFS cash flow forecasts alone. There will also be a PFS in that time on the green ammonia.
Expect volatility with small caps and even more volatility with small caps with relatively low volume like this one. That volatility scares people into selling and that pushes deep corrections even deeper. I can't possibly know if there is some negative development but I'm not going to assume there is based on panic selling from those that are selling for tax losses or selling in just case someone else knows something.
People get carried away big time with their emotions. It's understandable when they are losing money but it doesn't help with investment decisions or investment performance if they are unlucky enough to sell near the lows and many unfortunately do give up and sell at the worst time. Today's higher volume sell-off might be a number of investors finally throwing in the towel because the losses are getting unbearable for them. It's a tough game when we worry if someone else knows something. Check the facts and what you know. Redo your own research. Don't make investment decisions based on what you think someone else might know or unsubstantiated speculation on HC which just might be traders wanting to buy your shares as cheap as possible.
If you trade with stop losses, that might work for you. I find that too challenging with high volatility, low volume stocks like this - but that's just me.
I would love that we could all make plenty on this stock but many won't be around long enough or will get stopped into taking losses and might not buy back in. It's a tough market at times. Never any guarantee of success as something could eventually go wrong as with any investment. All the best everyone.
Have a look at that RSI below. Very deep into oversold territory at traditionally the weakest time of the year for the market. Should you believe those telling you this will go lower? Maybe it will. Will it be much higher in 1-3 months? DYOR and ask yourselves those questions.
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