Ann: Mineral Investment Contract Executed, page-53

I've done a lot of research about MNB and here's why the stars have started to align for a Disallowed within 2 years. I am going to detail why I think this is an investment and not simply a trade.

With Angolan government support in the execution of the Mineral Investment Contract, MNB is very well positioned to successfully engage the government with off-takes of its low capex, simple fertiliser blend. Support from the government was literally the biggest hurdle of this entire project.

Agriculture in Angola has tremendous potential. Fertile soils, favourable climate, abundant agricultural and arable land. Crops production is exploding. In 3 years to 2019, total volume of Maize (corn) produced increased by 26%, bananas by 9%. Total exports (portugal, spain, namibia, south africa), are growing exponentially year on year with >200% growth in maize, bananas, and cassava. (source: tridge.com)

So the market for quality fertiliser is absolutely there and the pie is getting bigger. There is already engagement with five interested lenders for financing, as evident in the latest quarterly activities report.

This is a stock who's success will literally feed Africa and, if successful (which massively hinged on whether the government would provide support by formalising engagement through the Mineral Investment Contract), will be a must in the portfolio of every ethical investing institution.

So call me optimistic, but I think the winds of change are slowly blowing in Angola. To give you an idea, until September 2017, Angola was ruled by the same corrupt man for 38 years. Now 2017-elected João Lourenço is removing many corrupt officials and Anti-corruption is actually a cornerstone of his re-election campaign. The government's anti-corruption efforts recovered more than $5 in illegally grafted assets in 2019 alone. It's an incredibly difficult task, but if ever there was a time for structural change in Angola, it's now. With an oil-dominated economy (and low global oil demand), the country has many reasons to diversify investment into agriculture (evident from massive growth in crops production).

This project is, in my opinion, too important not to succeed. The key risk was always whether the government would support them, and this has been formally overcome through the Mineral Investment Contract. Otherwise low risk on off-takes, market, and financing. Oh and the project is around $260M USD NPV after tax so at 33M current market cap, that's 10 bags in 2 years. DFS is mentioned in two most recent updates and anticipated to be released soon.