AGS 0.00% 17.5¢ alliance resources limited

hi metal, i think it is a little tough to put a value on it...

  1. 5,939 Posts.
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    hi metal,

    i think it is a little tough to put a value on it unless you are part of a process where someone really wants to do a deal then and there.

    the uranium market is going to do something eventually and valuations could possibly move very quickly.

    if quasar wants our stake they will want it for as cheap as they can get it and if alliance prefers to move on then they will want as much as they can get.

    there is a bit of a joke where analysts are saying we are into the fifth year of what was expected to be a two year recovery in the uranium market so something has to give eventually and the longer the recovery in the uranium market takes then the more likely the uranium market will snap back.

    i also suspect that quasar may have thought through all the possible scenarios surrounding the alliance action to verify the termination of the uranium marketing and sales agency and to me it now looks as though quasar accepts the termination maybe verified by the court (because alliance will not settle) which may indicate that quasar now accepts that they will need to pay a lot higher than what they offered a few months ago, assuming quasar wants 100% of four mile.

    of course i could be wrong as another offer from quasar could land on alliance's desk tomorrow.

    so for an ags four mile valuation we have two big factors: the overall uranium market and the termination of the quasar agency agreement.

    both factors have their own time constraint considerations.

    i am happy to hold and wait for as long as i need to which shouldn't be too long now, hopefully.

    a week or so a go there was a u.s. utility that was in the market for 54,000 lbs. it looked as though there was very little traded on the spot market last week. uranium sellers are not dropping their prices so it seems. hopefully the uranium market is about to go on a sustained upward move at a rate of knots.
 
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