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17.5¢ alliance resources limited

Ann: Mineral Resource Estimate - Four Mile Northeast, page-73

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Metalduster

7,877 Posts.

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28/06/15

16:05

Post #: 15544057
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Originally posted by mmartin ↑

thrasher Post #: 15540751

Uranium in the ground is hard to value it is usually done in single figures per lb , also the production costs can vary significantly depending on how you need to get it out also the process costs. The price of Uranium is forecast to climb so that would need to be built into any reasonable calculation of value. I am not going to put my figures up to be poo pooed but conservatively AGS share would be easily around $500m to $1.5billion depending on 15 or 25% ownership and future price rises. Still works out at well over $1 per share however conservative you want to be, so could AGS get somewhere between $300m and $500m from a buyer? imo very possible, or if not hang in there and same money will come over time maybe more. Could be life changing profits for some and return of losses to long termers, good luck to all holders.

wllm Post #:15540782

A few years back Q/H were speculating a cost of Production A$38 to AGS.
AGS paid for an independent valuation which came in at A$28 COP.
There would be other costs, transportation, using their licence to sell etc so if we concede A$38 is the figure to work with we could do some approximations:
General Atomic is a Multi-national company who would have set up LT contracts as a U308 supplier.
Let us assume LT contract prices US$60 and a currency exchange of 0.75 = A$80. So Gross Profit = $80 -$38 = A$42
Let us assume a conservative resource estimate of 140Mlb.
Let us assume AGS share to be 25% (best case scenario) = 35Mlb
AGS share of Current known B4M estimate = 35Mlb x A$42 = A$1,470,000,000 ie. $1.47B Gross Profit over the life of the mines.

In ground resource values can vary greatly with grade, location ease of extraction etc., but going by a seemingly very knowledgeable U308 forum poster and shareholder from years ago US$6 to US$10 were figures he used.
B4M being a very rich resource and lending itself to in-ground extraction he used US$10/lb.
I apologise for not having a link to his posts but it is from memory around 2008 he was a shareholder and posting.
Anyways that being said, we could conservatively say that the AGS share of the current B4M estimate
35Mlb x US$10/0.75 = A$466M
ie. AGS is worth >A$1/share to any would be buyout. Plus the unknown value in the remaining unexplored mineral lease.

The above are my thoughts only and not for investment advice. Intelligent discussion and your thoughts on the above is welcome. GLAH's
I am praying for a positive outcome to the current court case, that being the right to sell our own share of extracted Uranium. This will no doubt induce a bidding war by interested parties.
Return of the forfeited 10% will be a bonus and imho Justly deserved due to the unhanded tactics being used by our JV partner.

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Why do AGS have to have sales rights to sell ACE when its clear how much ACE is worth with the known resource?

Why did Q/H offer a one off 37m plus the Mined uranium, at the time, around 20m?

No-one knows the real story as to what is the real situation.

What is the conflict in how the Uranium is sold by H/Q? Whether its stockpiled or not the value remains or edges higher on any sale imo

All AGS has to do is sit back and let the Cheques roll in. ONE Billion Dollars! Give or Take.!

imo

Md

Last edited by Metalduster: 28/06/15

AGS Price at posting: 8.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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