My favourite part;
"Analysis
The resource upgrade was well ahead of our expectations – especially a
>50% increase in the Indicated Resource. We were hoping for a 3-4mt
increase so a 5.8mt increase is a terrific result.
This increase may result in a increased mining rate/plant throughput to
say 1.5mtpa which could increase Pb production by 50% to ~ 45kt of Pb
pa and 1.5moz of Ag. The optimal economics will be determined in the
optimised PFS which is due in Q1 CY’20.
The current capital estimate is $95.4m and we would hope this would
not increase too much on an expanded plant scenario.
Both the lead and silver price have increased lately as shown in the
chart below with the lead price back above US$1.00/lb after hitting
a year low of US$0.80/lb in May’19. The PFS assumed a Pb price of
US$0.92/lb and Ag price of US$15.4/oz and AUD of $0.70 (A$1.31/lb Pb
and A$22/oz Ag)
The current price is A$1.48/lb for Pb and $26/oz or 13% higher for Pb
and 18% higher for silver than PFS assumptions.
Our heavily risk adjusted valuation of 2.7cps assumes a LT US$1.00/
lb Pb and US$18/oz Ag. This valuation is based on the PFS estimates
of a1mtpa operation and doesn’t factor in any potential upside of an
expanded production scenario.
We maintain our Speculative Buy and $0.025/sh PT. The resource
upgrade is pleasing and the potential for Sorby Hills to become a long
life, high margin lead/silver producer. "
Currently trading at 40% of the PT, a discount of around 60%.... market will forget about spoofy biotechs soon enough...
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