Some interesting numbers being thrown around here, all of it...

Some interesting numbers being thrown around here, all of it goods news still.

My take after listening a few times to the interview (or key parts of it) was that currently 25-30 tonnes per month, once upgraded 60-80 tonnes then once into the open pit up to 300 tonnes per month. He states that current price per tonne is $30-$32k (which I believe is $USD) and that "we have around 50 percent grade of that so divide by 2"

Can't make out exactly what he says in the last part. We have a 50% share on the stockpile with Cronimet but the divide by 2 comment seems to relate to what comes out of the mine.

Even if we are talking 50% grade on the commonly quoted price $32k per tonne (my limited understanding is that there are various prices per MTU based on grade) that is still good. IMHO.

Allowing 10 months of the year at full production, $30k tonne tungsten price then revenue of $90m from the mine. Lets say that is halved based on the above comment then $45m per year revenue in $USD, so at current conversion $60m AUS. (throw in some more for the JV and quarry, but let's stick with $60m)

Based on previous NPV report and recent resource upgrade I am thinking that there's less digging involved now so les processing and less costs etc. As a result assume operating costs equate to half the revenue number (I'd expect it to be less but all I know about tungsten has been learned from Hotcopper) So profit say $22.5-$25m per year.

Divide that by shares on market (call it 1.4 billion once notes converted, options etc) then 1.8cents profit per share. If 4-6% is a good dividend yield then at 5% yield we have a 36 cent share (if you choose yield as means of valuation)

I assume this is discounted based on project life, that yield wont last forever, but there are also 2 more tenements to explore.......

All back of the envelope stuff and likely to be debunked in coming months, days or even hrs......

All crystal ball stuff and IMHO......no evidence to support any of the above other than what most here have already read. I am in Victoria so locked down and can't be arsed working as speculation and crystal balling is much more fun........

GLTAH

PS A kid gets sent home from school early one day. His mum says "why did you get sent home?" The kid says "well, we were doing counting and the teacher said, "what comes after 69?" and I said "mouth wash"... and they sent me home"