I'm concentrating on the 13% concentrate - the target is restated in the announcement at 6-11 billion tons of raw ore.
- 6Bt gives 800Mt of concentrate which = 40Mt per year output over 20 years.
- 11Bt gives 1400mt of concentrate which = 70Mt output over 20 years
Lets call it 50 Mt per year x US$150 = $7.5b or A$10b.
HIO could well be producing $10,000,000,000 of sales well before the end of the decade with an operating margin of just $3500B. HIO may well be approaching FMG's net income.... and they have a $50B market cap.
And how long before the magnetite concentrate price separates from the 62% hematite benchmark to reflect its true value to the steel mills, especially so outside of China? Like brent and West Texas crude, they deserve there own distiction as refineries prefer either one or the other.
A few weeks extra to confirm we have a tiger by the tail is neither here nor there. A 20Mt operation is outstanding in it's own right but with growth prospects to boot, HIO will become extremly attractive to all types of investors, both as a dividend and growth stock. But unlike FMG, its not at the bottom of the ore grade and future demand spectrum, HIO is at the very top. Once the wider market has some hard, proven resource and project feasability numbers to crunch, HIO should fly.
