The downside outcome and the fear factor here is MIN only wanting to block and stymie a TLEA TO then play for time and hose holders down into long term MIN maximum benefit. MIN's is best suited by not paying overs in a bidding war now, but either picking it up on the cheap later or working with TLEA to screw ESS over for a while then do some deal later. Hate to say this, but if people try thinking like they are Chris Elliston, as a buyer you don;t want to pay any more than you have for control of a DSO deal that makes same/better sense than a TO...
TLEA has next move. We just don;t know what they are thinking. Possible actions include:
Walk away because they have simply gone cold on the idea since Jan (ESS are farked)
Walk away because they don;t have MIN's Mt Marion synergies, can't pay as much as MIN, and thus won't bother with a bidding war. Do MIN a favour by walking early that they may repay in the future ( ESS are farked)
Come back and compete with higher offer(s) to their max desired price level with pragmatism and goodwill and see what MIN's real desire to fight is (ESS are good)
Drop the 75% Scheme acceptance condition and see what they can pick up at 50c (maybe 20% of holders will rather take 50c than risk getting stuck below 50c if these two decide to divide and conquer over time (ESS are farked)
I'm kicking myself not selling more, buying some I sold back this morning, because I can see it going any of the above ways. My base case is TLEA come back with at least one higher revised offer in goodwill, at least test MIN's resolve/intentions, see what they shares they can pick up by removing the 75% yes vote clause (if possible) and play a long game. TLEA walking away from the ESS BOD's acceptance of the cheap 50c Scheme offer (and no talk, no shop etc) without any attempt to 'fight' for control is a dog act and will not reflect well the next time TLEA try M&A with others. Market is pricing in risk the TO just stalls with MIN's block and refusal to compete... we place our bets again
