ESS is under a no talk, what they needed to get TLEA to put up a bid
MIN is at zero risk of missing any opportunity by waiting, can't imagine the vote this Thursday will get up
TLEA will probably reach out to MIN and see what their intentions are. MIN might tell them, might not.
TLEA cannot move forward with no better offer, at least not until everyone but MIN will accept 50c which won't be soon.
TLEA showing their hand with a better offer without tying down some shares first (specifically Odey's 5%) makes little sense. It will probably get voted down so long as holdouts holdout for MIN to come over the top.
Unless TLEA threaten to walk away if their revised isn;t accepted, and enough ex-MIN holders take them seriously, but you can't say "best and final offer" without meaning it on the ASX. At some point though, one bidder always says best and final.
TLEA could change the Scheme conditions to lower than 75% acceptance and be happy with a majority holding if MIN does not compete. Put their foot on ESS without going all the way and see how things pan out over next year or so...
Fact is, ESS are not in control, TLEA and MIN+5% are. Almost any combination of outcomes could happen depending on what TLEA and MIN want and are prepared to do. I'm hopeful MIN will put up a counteroffer after talking with TLEA and/or waiting for TLEA to mov e first. If TLEA decide it's all too hard, changed their minds and walk then MIN get handed ESS on a platter. If TLEA move then MIN get to play last bidder, like Texas Hol'dem always the strongest position.
Still can;t see any rush for MIN to act given they have 20%, TLEA have nada, and holders will begin to despair if and when a clean, higher priced exit happens (neither party want to pay any more to get shareholder acceptance than they have to). MIN want to put Dome Nth ore through Mt Marion on the cheap imo, but have plenty of their own ore for the time being. Either TLEA goes hard with a revised offer to force MIN's hand (with or without Odey and some other big hitters locked down) under the threat of leaving ESS in the hands of our new, but not benevolent overlord, or they walk are the options way I see it. MIN decides what to do after TLEA decides what to do...
Doesn;t mean MIN won;t turn up shortly with their own bid, start the auction and move everything to a quick to a resolution.... just doesn;t make sense for MIN to move next way the cards are dealt.
ESS is under a no talk, what they needed to get TLEA to put up a...
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