It's hard to work through the information vs the gut feel on...

It's hard to work through the information vs the gut feel on something like this isn't it, 2ic?

A couple of things I've been mulling over is why TLEA want this asset in the first place. They have 51% of Greenbushes which is ramping up and ability to take their % of production for the Kwinana Hydroxide plant - so why ESS? Is it just a cheap foothold on the tenement package for future exploration? Developing and producing from ESS would be a long way off given they have the ability to add more trains to Greenbushes if they want to.

I've also heard rumours that the TLEA JV is not as amicable as either party (IGO especially) had hoped. IGO are also historically very disciplined with their M&A valuations and will not allow TLEA to bid overs for the asset, being happy to walk away if the number goes beyond their level. With their battery metals plant being planned right next door to the Kwinana plant is there a wider deal being pursued around dissolution of the JV itself and therefore more sources of supply needing to be set to ensure the parting is mutually beneficial?

As you point out, why would MIN lob a massive bid here. They can simply block the vote Thursday, sit back and wait. If TLEA increase their bid they can just sell out their 20% at a profit and walk away, or repeat the block until they get a satisfactory deal. Or TLEA get frustrated, walk way and the SP plummets and MIN soak it up for a much lower price. It's all just optionality for MIN. They've got stakes in just about everything in the region.

So what does any of this rambling mean? I know just about as much as anyone, I don't know how it'll pan out. My gut is telling me this is heading south with MIN about to block the vote and test TLEA's resolve. Again, I hear not all is happy at JV HQ so perhaps a MIN block is just what they need to walk away from the whole thing...

GLTAH