I agree with most of what you have said 2ic, all those outcomes...

I agree with most of what you have said 2ic, all those outcomes are possible...

Disagree with

"Drop the 75% Scheme acceptance condition and see what they can pick up at 50c (maybe 20% of holders will rather take 50c than risk getting stuck below 50c if these two decide to divide and conquer over time (ESS are ...)"

If both had slightly less than 20%, ESS shareprice will maintain 50c+, as the base case has now been set for both TLEA and MIN. TLEA probably wants to DSO. MIN wants feed for Mt Marion and Kalgoorlie, not the same objectives ? TLEA would have to buy on market to get to their 20%, helping support the near term price. Can't buy while under scheme...

Most likely outcome for me is "Come back and compete with higher offer(s) to their max desired price level with pragmatism and goodwill and see what MIN's real desire to fight is (ESS are good)".

Both would like the defined Lithium and long term expansion in tenements. This is a growth area, close to infrasructure and TLEA is currently not involved. TLEA if stepped up its bid to 70c would get control, or push MIN into a higher bid. Good strategy for a competitor. No reason I can see why TLEA can't convert the scheme of arrangement into a straight takeover bid, no time limits or intervals required between the two types etc.

I dont expect MIN to back out as they did with WGO, there MIN and Gina were not serious competitors, friends even? AS far as I know IGO/TLEA and MIN are very different competing groups, no reason to cooperate, better to damage.

TLEA must have expected this scenario, game plan already defined if it did occur, I wonder what it is? The low bid is like throwing out birdseed, dont understand why TLEA did this...