Ann: Mineral Resources Shareholding in Essential Metals, page-96

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BerserkWarrior

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19/04/23

07:43

Post #: 67344738
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Originally posted by SpikeCanonBooks: ↑

Firstly, to all those who have stated that TLEA can't waive the 75% acceptance condition, that is correct. That condition is required under Section 411(4) of the Corporations Act for every scheme of arrangement.

Secondly, Min Res can't lodge a takeover bid at a price lower than they paid for ESS shares in the last 4 months. So Min Res are legally restricted to a bid over 58c until mid August (I'm sure they would bid over that anyway, just an FYI).

I personally am of the opinion that the lithium stocks will reflect the projected uplift lithium prices sooner rather than later (which is backed up by UBS's lithium market analysis released today), so there is a sense of urgency for Min Res to get this locked up before that happens.

From here my prediction (hope) is TLEA make a modest uplift in their bid (maybe even ahead of the scheme meeting) to try force Min Res' hand, and Min Res coming with a 1:100 scrip offer to blow TLEA out of the water. As others have said Chris Ellison likes to do things loud.

Even if I'm wrong (likely), I think the risk/reward is very appealing at 51.5c and will be accumulating.

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That's true of the Scheme conditions however there's nothing to stop them withdrawing the Scheme & going hostile on market without any minimum acceptance......they could aim for control with 51% but MIN have a large start on them now. Best TLEA can hope for is a blocking stake I think to give them a seat at the table and then come to some agreement with MIN going forward regarding development if they want to keep playing. This has many permutations to a final outcome.
Disc: sold Friday/Monday. Looking to buy back in

ESS Price at posting: 51.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Mineral Resources Shareholding in Essential Metals, page-96

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