@2ic, re. your Fri.27th post.trying to follow the logic here....

@2ic, re. your Fri.27th post.

trying to follow the logic here. You seem to be suggesting that the upside potential is capped by profit takers who believe that their expectations (which peaked in Aug. last year) have finally been realised. Specifically, holders are selling on the confirmation of previous expectations. You have assumed that expectations remain fixed over time and that todays ann. contains no new information (that was not previously available). As evidence you provide an A-B comparison between the map in the CR presentation and today’s ann then proceed to claim that everything was foretold in the 29/07/22 presentation. My question is simple, ‘How do you know what the seller is thinking?’

At issue is the idea the DRE has reached the limits of its potential and that this will be reflected in the sp. The sub-message of your post was that the sp would also remain under selling pressure due to the nature of recent announcements. What about the sellers who thought that there was going to be a CR? What about the buy side? How do explain the origin of their expectations? Or were they also determined in 2022 by the low res. aerial survey map and the target generation numbers in the CR presentation? This does not mean your unfalsifiable claim (the seller’s state of mind) is inadequate, just the dubious nature of the reasoning behind it. I am not arguing that the recent ann. was the cause of the buying or the selling only that it offered new information that could be interpreted as expansionary not priced-in as you suggest.

Exploration from the air is nice but confirmation on the ground is a higher quality information. Friday’s ann. is de-risking and therefore value adding not value neutral, hence the price sensitive label. True, the market is forward looking but target generation and target confirmation are not the same. When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do?

In 2022 we had an obscure low res. map, now we have a picture of Luke standing on the ironstones outcrop, ~24km south east of Yin, proving that the exploration model is robust yet still capable of yielding surprises. News of further outcrop discovery can modify expectations. It means the pattern is intact, more high grade outcrops, more shallow ore bodies, more potential. The ann. delivers a powerful message: Yin is growing.

How can last year’s expectations not be affected by rising neodymium prices or any number of external, internal & individual drivers - green mandates, gold breaking out, other commitments, etc. C3 assays add weight to the regional source theory or are you also trying to say that carbonatite potential is also priced-in?

Finally, the so called ‘disappointing’ results from C3, Sabre and Y3 phase 1 drilling and how they relate to the current ann. These discoveries have not been fully explored, therefore not fully priced-in. New targets will create more drilling and more discoveries. Expectations change in real time. DRE is such a diverse company any attempt to reduce it to a simple binary is a mis-characterisation. Your analysis considers only one variable - DRE’s rare earth project - and only one side of the trade. Expectations are not universal or immutable. Thank you for highlighting the significance of last weeks spa.