"trying to follow the logic here. You seem to be suggesting that...

"trying to follow the logic here. You seem to be suggesting that the upside potential is capped by profit takers who believe that their expectations (which peaked in Aug. last year) have finally been realised. Specifically, holders are selling on the confirmation of previous expectations. You have assumed that expectations remain fixed over time and that todays ann. contains no new information (that was not previously available). As evidence you provide an A-B comparison between the map in the CR presentation and today’s ann then proceed to claim that everything was foretold in the 29/07/22 presentation. My question is simple, ‘How do you know what the seller is thinking?’"

I view markets through an 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH) lens, though only semi-efficient for explorer-developers. Most of the results (released or not) find their way into the market and impact the share price. It takes time for implications of results to create new equilibrium price. Sometimes the market incorrectly values results, leaving the share price too low or high relative to value-implications. Only time reveals if the market was right or wrong.

All investors judge results against expectations... against 'guidance vs actual' sales revenue in the case of blue-chip retail companies for example. By extrapolation of early target generation or drilling results into the future resource size/grade/value in the case of explorer-developers. Price discovery is a subjective process, skewed by multiple overlying variables, often unrelated to the actual 'value-implication' of results. eg, falling markets and fear brings more sellers than buyers and falling market cap regardless of 'value', booming markets the opposite. Supply of newly issued stock (eg CR's, SPP's), or funding ITM options expiry, or a single large fund selling down etc, etc, etc all push the price down from 'value' because in the short-term the market is a voting machine as Buffet said. Over time, the market becomes more a weighing machine.

Price discovery occurs daily every trade, and becomes more meaningful over time (all things being equal). There are a myriad of factors and many individuals acting every day, of course I don;t know what each seller is thinking or particularly care. Flippers, traders, chart traders, FA investors, LT, St... so long as trading is liquid enough, the actions of many individual judgements bring about a 'market price' that balances price against risks/rewards/alternative investments etc. The point of my post you referenced was that DRE allowed little to no time for the market to price discover the importance of '"Significant, Step-Change, Growth Potential" new target generation results before pricing in a CR. A simple point in a complex market. I can explain it to you, I can;t understand it for you!

In no way have I said DRE has reached the limits of it's value, or even expressed a value opinion (on the Mangaroon or their other projects). I simply made the observation that, being forward looking, the market had priced in an expectation of multiple new Yin-like discoveries from the 66 new targets to be tested. It is my contention (and the market's imo) those 66 new targets within 40km radius represented a substantial value uplift based on the probability a reasonable percentage of those targets would generate valuable new resources in time (ie "It was foretold"). Expectations are high as per HC posters, all very exciting. June 22 Qtrly, released during the TH, stated " Mapping and sampling of the remaining 66 targets has commenced with results expected from August through October 2022"...

If I sounded underwhelmed, I was. Given it's now late Jan 23, the regional sampling update basically only identified two new REE ironstone trends out of the 66 untested targets. Yin and Y8 prospects were part of an already tested 19 other targets (85 targets in total). New prospect Y42 indicates that the 66 new prospects have been designated simple numerical names in advance of ground truthing. Not that they will test the 66 targets in numerical order, but 6 months after new targets release, three months from when results were expected, and the big release only has two REE-ironstones with rock chips worth putting up in lights I don;t follow DRE closely, and it's still early days, but only two ironstones prospects generated from up to 66 targets over 6 months' work might be a little below 'market's expectations'...

Could have been 20, could have been 40 new targets, but so far it's only two. Good news as two new prospects are, I posted it might have disappointed high expectations many held. Markets are forward looking and releases are often in the rear-view mirror, where share price/value adjusts on results 'missing' or 'beating' those expectations (see above discussion). You are excited by two new prospects out of 66 in 6 months, maybe you even think that is a beat? I think only two is underwhelming at best, but different opinions make a market right. No point arguing differences of subjective opinion.

Your last paragraph says it all really. Bulls have bullish expectations, see all new results through a bullish lens, always believe the company is way undervalued, management can walk on water, and exploration "will" deliver more valuable discoveries for sure. Good luck, it's been long known Magaroon is a regional scale carbonatite intruded complex with huge potential. It's exploration, anything can happen, I'm just making dispassionate observations on results as they get released...

"Finally, the so called ‘disappointing’ results from C3, Sabre and Y3 phase 1 drilling and how they relate to the current ann. These discoveries have not been fully explored, therefore not fully priced-in. New targets will create more drilling and more discoveries. Expectations change in real time. DRE is such a diverse company any attempt to reduce it to a simple binary is a mis-characterisation. Your analysis considers only one variable - DRE’s rare earth project - and only one side of the trade. Expectations are not universal or immutable."