comments about bauxite prices following Al prices with a 3 month lag are only correct when production rates (and prices) are being determined by demand of the final product. In this case those comments do not apply because it is energy restrictions that are are determining output and price not demand of the end product, which has remained strong.
in march this year we had the first of china restricting refineries output due to imposing environmental regulations. bauxite kilns in Shanxi province were suspended for a couple of weeks, this caused a run Al prices but from what i have seen there was no associated run in Bauxite price. the Al price has increased 50+% this year but bauxite prices have increased less than 20%. that is even with supply disruptions from the coup in Guinea.
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