Lets clear up this thread derailment once and for all. hopefully this will give readers some clarity and provide some value. There may be errors and opinions here, but I have tried to reference with proof where ever possible.
Financial Path to Demo plantThe demo plant is budgeted at approx. 10m. There is no issue here and the govt has earmarked 5m for this, demonstrating its words with cold hard cash. The other 5m will come from RNU's cash reserves. Samples have already come back better than expected and I expect the demo plant will unlock key data and samples for offtake negotiations.
Financial Path to stage 1 Upstream MineThere is approx. 215m to get the stage 1 upstream mine operational. RNU is going with a staged approach, once its up and running, we can generate cash and this will help fund the next piece of the puzzle. To get to the 215m we will draw on our cash reserves and look for debt financing (although dont rule out capital government assistance or cash raise)
Financial Path to stage 1 PSGOnce the mine is up, we will need an additional 394m for stage 1 of the PSG plant. To fund this, up to 50% or 185m (150m +35m cost over run) will be loaned to us from the EFA upon meeting of customary conditions. The other half would come from some sort of financial mechanic such as cash generation, debt financing, export assistance or capital raise.We will be operating at an OPEX around $1800, so we need the pricing to be above this to be profitable. The DFS had 4k - the world has obviously changed since that figure was released and this now looks like a pipe dream , unless a supercycle kicks in (need some luck), I'd say DC is looking for a price of at least 3k-ish to kick off, but i have no idea and am just guessing.
Stage 2 involves additional investment to scale the PSG plant once stage 1 mine and psg plant is operational and cashflow positive. We need between 173 - 377m dependent on the scale id imagine. The details of the financing options here haven't really been discussed. The 185m govt loan can be used for this, if there is any left. The lack of transparency is obviously because by this stage, financing should be a formality as we are in production and generating cash.
Disingenious data presented by Names Little and why this announcement is so important:
I encourage everyone to report Name's Little disingenuous post, we all know what he is trying to do. Essentially derail the topic of this announcement of the permiting approval in a safe soveriegn jurisdication where permits actually mean something as this is the biggest killer in his investment in graphite.
The data presented by RNU, as far as we can tell, looks genuine and looks to comply with regulartory transparency rules.
- 215m for "initial upstream costs" which he conveniently ignored. Its written right there.
- The mismatch in numbers he quoted was for a multi year staged expansion of the downstream PSG plant vs the upstream mine. Again written right there.
- Essentially he took two different numbers and tried to make it look like it was a deliberate tactic by RNU to not "mention" it, when in fact it is all right there.
- What we need right now is actually less than the 215 for initialisation - its the difference between 215m and how much we want to responsibly draw from our ~100m cash reserve. This is not an impossible task, in fact very, very realistic (aside from the challenges which i will get into)...
- The detail around 770m is not mentioned cos its a "snapshot". I wish he would look up what the definition of snapshot means.
I'd suspect our resident troll is panicking for a variety of reasons, unlike his other graphite investment, RNU has a very clear path ahead of it
- financial transperancy - something his investment doesn't yet have
- water, tailings and electrics solutions - again as above (and no an MOU with an electricity company doesn't count)
- reliable infrastructure and downstream synchronicity - unlike some other players, RNU dont need to mine and then transport its product 370kms during wet season by road in Africa to get its product to port, then ship it to another country to finalise the PSG process before shipping it to the end user. We aren't just talking extra costs, but time, increased risk for things to go wrong, increased players to get the product to the end user and so on and so forth. In an industry where reliability is paramount, no wonder he is sweating so hard.
- strategic relations with the west. Our relationship with Europe and the US is much more than transactional and is not swayed or muddied by Chinese influence.
- finally and most importantly we are pretty much all permitted up in a country known for reliability, transparency and compliance. Our country doesn't nationalize mining projects or change the goalposts on whims, our country is not entrenched in corruption, our country doesn't have artisanal miners and mining security picking up arms disrupting mine operations or worse yet fatalities.
RNU is not without Challenges - Although the debt we need to take on right now (ie difference between 215m and our cash reserves) is not huge, in the grand scheme of things, it is obviously challenging right now. Our Opex to draw graphite from the mine is pretty much on par with Chinese supplier market pricing.
This is a problem faced by all western graphite explorers right now and is not unique to RNU, this includes those in Tanzania and Africa.We need an initial domino to fall- western build out of demand, either thru EV growth or Gigafactory build out (this is happening, but slower than expected.)
- western downstream change in mindset and action regarding pricing for graphite, ie paying a premium on ex-Chinese graphite
- potentially, tariffs to counteract Chinese pricing
- China to roll back its suspected unsustainable subsidies on graphite (low chance, imo china will chokehold this to delay projects and maintain control as leverage and deterance for trade wars or whatever)
- China to go into deficit of natural graphite so it cant control pricing as much.
Any of these triggers could completely change the game and change it rapidly. If the timing is right and a couple of these dominos fall in quick succession, there's a chance (IMO) of a supercycle in terms of graphite pricing which will probably mean all of us here are in for a life changing ride. Until then, we wait and bottom drawer this but remind ourselves we are in good hands with one of, if not, the best graphite project that is most importantly cash flow positive right now and in a safe jurisidiction.
Now, lets get back on track, great announcement, all the permitting ducks in a row now. We can sit pretty here. Clear path to demo plant and timings given - by the end of the year. A little slower than expected, but given current graphite pricing it may be a blessing in disguise. Until then, we can sit back and enjoy RNU's cash interest on its substantial cash balance with no fears of changing govt policy's or immininent dilution unlike some other graphite hopefuls located in Tanzania.
AIMO DYOR My research and opinions may have errors
