@Sapio May never fully make sense but that is the way the market ends up with a SP and that's the way it works. One person's trash is another't treasure. Simplistically IMO, until recently anyway, Minyari and Calibre have been stranded borderline deposits. Calibre definitely without Winu proceeding. Minyari, even though it starts from surface, does not hang together as well as Havieron and grades are not as good. [Not certain about the latter but suspect it is the case though arguable]. Havieron is IMO, at the moment, a much more mineable deposit even given the depth. Initially it looked like a simple breccia pipe however drilling has shown mineralised complexities that expand the potential. Minyari has two primary options. Stand alone which may be AZY's preferred option though how they raise the Capex opex is going to be extremely challenging. Toll treating at Telfer with whoever owns it by the time mining ever gets underway at Minyari.. Sale to someone is a third option and probably other less palatable ones as well. The fundamentals are debatable and to a certain extent independent of the market valuation = SP. If AZY's new structural thesis on Minyari proves valid then expect a re-rate especially if grades are good over broad intersections. [Good 1 or more g/t Au plus Cu over 50-100+m and consistent higher and longer better - Some to 300+m at 1+g/t Au and some Cu (from memory) recorded in the recent phases of drilling 21/22.]. AZY was floated in 2011(?) and very quickly turned up Calibre then got Rio into Citadel 2015. The SP has been a roller coaster the whole time with punters, including me, seeing the potential value only to get brought back to market reality time and again. Great if you were a trader and timed these swings well - suspect @candidcamera may have done well on some occasions. 1c to around a maximum of 6c then back down again as results generally proved technical success rather than bonanza. With inflation (?? LOL for a bad joke) the SP has only come back to 1.8c (so far and hopefully all) in this down cycle as another season begins in the Paterson. ==================== Going further afield to raise issues of SP level relative to ounces in the ground. Each of these has their own challengeswhich could be expanded on but won't be very much if at all. Management is common to all with the quality highly variable and difficult to evaluate without significant argument/debate. AZY Good explorers but have trouble converting exploration success potential into high SP. Common theme but not necessarily management's "fault". Where to start? Minnow PSL or ENR or others in the Paterson? Down to Wiluna 6+Moz Au of nice grade but BLK made a hash of it and is no longer listed and the successor got blindsided by a war in Ukraine and the refractory ore. SP low. BEZ multi million ounce in Sarawak. Someone said I dodged a bullet by choosing not to invest in it. A Malaysian company comes along recently and pumps in lots of funds and the SP takes off. ANL has 3-4M0z in the DRC and 20+billion SOI. Someone offering $35M for the lot. NVA and Nova have Au deposits in Alaska with a total of some 50Moz. Both are somewhat stranded for various reasons which I won't go into. NVA consolidated, an option for AZY, and the current SP in old terms is not too great even with 9+-Moz MRE. The poor end of the scale above. Lots of gold in the ground but been in company inventories and unmined for variable lengths of time. What makes DEG, CMM, WAF worth so much more? IMO obvious enough for DEG and WAF. CMM's initial pit is into a relatively small deposit but has become a real money maker for company and LTHs alike. There have been a few posts comparing Karlawinda and Minyari on various threads here. I suspect Minyari would have been mined already if it was in the Kalgoorlie area. The additional mett for Cu/Co/Ag may have made it tougher than Karlawinda ====================== AZY looked around in 2010 and became early movers in what became a rerating of the Paterson Province. First with Calibre on their ground and then the quick 1 2 of Winu and Havieron; bringing a sharp focus to the area. Other than drilling out the latter two there have only been minor hints of anything new. 12 years of exploration with relatively little to show for it makes the story wear thin. Unfortunately, that is exploration. In the Paterson where even getting a drill rig on site to test a target can be a challenge it is a challenge to explore. Maybe Tetris will be the next Havieron? ================= BHP came back to Oak Dam (South Australia) a couple of years ago. The recent announcement says they have plans, and approvals), to increase the number of rigs to 16! Possibly makes Havieron look like a small discovery at that rate. One hole can turn things around. Minyari? ================ Weekend Musing. No definitive answers possible IMO. Lots of possible reasons why the SP is what it is. That Ounces in the ground do not translate automatically into higher SP is shown by some of the examples above. Quality of ounces and so many other aspects come into play. Still holding AZY though suffering a little from PTSD and depleted wallet.
AZY Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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