depends on you think gold and so silver get pricedtl/drin a...

depends on you think gold and so silver get priced

tl/dr

in a nutshell - gold is heavily undervalued vs US 10-30 year inflation linked bonds atm - which we already covered a while back was a key medium term driver of price




- let alone the much longer term biggest driver of its valuation which is USD debt and debt/gdp - which its much more undervalued against


but as also said prior - the US market makers who draw the lines using the gold paper price futures typically do everything they can to throw retail and others off the scent - so basically they compress the time in which gold makes a big move but that makes the rises more violent

they do this imo because they want precious metals asset to maintain some value and function as an asset type and to ensure industry gets enough incentive to bring on replacement supply - but not so much it overwhelms USD as the preferred reserve currency

when paper gold price is being readied to be drawn higher - first there is usually a big pullback - like a pinball plunger being drawn back

imo thats what occurred last week

technically gold is in a shorter term wedge that it will have to break out of by mid Sept - it will either rise or fall

id lay 99% likelihood on it rising,

silver largely just follows gold directionally in a long trend - but fact silver has been so laser beam steady - for it -over past 12 months is a further indication gold's likely direction from here is substantially higher

beyond mid Sept - the actual full 2011-2022 gold price support arc wont be complete until Feb next year - but price will likely leave the arc long before that

price generally leaves a consolidation arc similarly to how it entered. and it entered this arc very violently back in April 2011

it went from 1580 to 1900 in ~ 1.5 months

i wouldnt be surprised to see US2300 gold price before November.

Im not banking on it - but it is a core probability. what is extremely unlikely is gold price will remain around where it is now for another 6 months. structurally its much more likely to go either much higher or lower than it is to stay here by completion of the arc

but i also think there's sizeable risk of a big move up then a crazy ivan pullback together with broad equities - prior to it later going much higher again