Good that people are mentioning the wet season as that is one of the advantages of MMI.
The summer wet season is relatively short, lasting from December to March (this year, the company operated well into the wet season, continuing to meet customer commitments till Mid February).
Therefore, we can ascertain that the wet season is 3-4 months, with the possibility to continue work, weather permitting.
Now let's compare that to Guinea, the second largest exporter of Bauxite. In addition to the increased shipping distance to China, the monsoon season in Guinea lasts from June to November (6 months), which halts productions at Bauxite mines and due it's aggressive winds and rain, offers little flexibility.
So already, we see the advantage of dealing with MMI for the Chinese, especially now that MMI has capesize vessel capability (which Guinea had).
And of course, we have the military coups in Guinea - the Chinese weren't too happy about the recent one and voiced their concerns.
Skardon river offers political stability, much shorter transit time and less seasonal downtime.
I can't see the Chinese playing ball with the Indonesians either - they have their own smelter capacity in China that they would like to use. The Indonesian bauxite ban will greatly assist MMI.
And that's why I'm banking on MMI to secure the additional capacity offtakes for stage 2... which will bring the all in cost down to A $32/T per MMI projections. If bauxite ore prices remain around A $60/T, we'll the prospect is mouth-watering.
Yes-- MMI will restart in April but if you think this team is sitting on their laurels playing tweedle dee tweedle dum... They're diligently working on securing the additional off-take capacity to make a determination on stage 2.
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