@newB, I think your post offers a reasonable production...

@newB, I think your post offers a reasonable production narrative for the past 4.5 years, although, BLK actually managed to hit half of one target : production for the second half of FY18 (the low end of guidance was 40koz & they achieved 40.02k oz but missed their AISC target).

Interestingly, all other production results (excluding the second half production for FY18) agree with your comment about missed targets on a constant basis.

FY17

• 18/10/16 : First Gold pour announced
• 09/01/17 : FY17 production guidance (8.5 months) to end of FY17 is 64k – 71k oz
• 03/04/17 : Production guidance downgraded to 42k – 51k oz
• 28/04/17 : Production guidance downgraded to 40k – 45k oz
• 25/07/17: FY17 production (8.5 months) is 39.4k oz

FY18

• 26/10/17 : FY18 production guidance not stated
• 15/01/18 : AISC guidance for second half at A$1,100 – $1,200 /oz
• 15/01/18 : AISC expected to average A$1100 – A$1200 /oz during the initial 3.5 year mine plan (Jan’18 presentation)....(note: In my opinion, BLK AISC numbers deserve a 5-star mining award for non-delivery).
• 09/04/18 : Production guidance for second half at 40k – 45k oz @ A$1100 - $1200 /oz
• 18/07/18 : Production for FY18 second half is 40.02k oz@ AISC A$1,294 /oz

FY19

• 18/07/18 : FY19 production guidance is 77k – 89k oz @ AISC A$1250 - $1450 /oz
• 30/07/18 : Production guidance maintained at 77k – 89k oz @ AISC A$1250 - $1450 /oz
• 24/10/18 : Production guidance maintained at 77k – 89k oz @ AISC A$1250 - $1450 /oz
• 31/01/19 : Production guidance downgraded to 72k – 80k oz @ AISC A$1500 - $1700 /oz
• 30/04/19 : Production guidance downgraded to 66k – 68k oz @ AISC A$1700 /oz
• 23/07/19 : FY19 production for FY19 is 65.4koz @ A$1760 /oz

FY20

• 01/08/19 : FY20 production guidance is 70k – 80koz @ AISC A$1550 - $1750 /oz
• 14/10/19 : Production guidance maintained at 70k – 80k oz @ AISC A$1550 - $1750 /oz
• 23/12/19 : Production guidance maintained at 70k – 80k oz @ AISC A$1550 - $1750 /oz
• 20/03/20 : Production guidance narrowed to low end of expectations
• 24/04/20 : Production guidance downgraded to approx. 66k oz @ AISC A$1875 /oz
• 16/06/20 : Production guidance downgraded to approx. 61.5k oz @ AISC A$1975 /oz
• 31/07/20 : FY20 production is 61.89koz @ AISC A$1950 /oz

FY21

• 31/07/20 : FY21 production guidance is 62koz @ AISC A$1950 /oz
• 21/10/20 : Production guidance maintained at 62k oz @ AISC A$1950 /oz
• 29/01/21 : Production guidance downgraded to 56k – 60k oz @ AISC A$1950 /oz
• 29/04/21 : Production guidance downgraded to 51k oz @ AISC A$2000 /oz
• 31/07/21 : FY21 production will definitely be a missed target.