IXR (ASX) Ann: Moderated

Originally posted by setfire2thehive: ↑

Respect your opinion and transparency of entry. Not sure if you do own VML/REE but if so some food for though.

RareX probably undervalued compared to peers but IMO will not be viable, perhaps marginal - maybe. Lynas head grade is 8% and only just made a profit. Rarex is 1.13% all currently profitable hard-rock project are in excess of 3%.

Furthermore my understand is the 13mT of Rarex is all inferred. Essentially the same geological confidence which didn't allow IXR to enter it into the SS. Noting an upcoming resource upgrade, it should be noted that if the resource tonnage increases they will be restricted (i assume) like IXR so input 70% indicated 30% inferred. On that notion the mine life and economics may not be as large as people expect their either.

Additionally, SS is due for completion Q3 and BFS starting Q4. Meaning timeline to production at rarex IMO will be later than IXR and likely less economic and higher capex. (just my assumption but await the SS).

"Strategy is to produce a saleable monazite concentrate to sell to new Australian refineries and existing capacity in SE Asia and China". So essentially just suggesting they won't be refining it to save capex. Similar strategies still had 300M capex.

VML; i like it short term as they will be in production on the 10% grade. Note this is a small portion an allows mining for 4-5years exploited at low levels. With unknown operational costs at the mine, the concentrate and REEtec separator it's an unknown venture. In saying that lynas made no profit for a long time so VML (with similar directors) is following same pathway.

Key risk for VML is what next. They're JORC grade is 1.46%. Thus once the 10% zonation is depleted they are in a similar position to rarex. That is a low grade hard-rock project. I note they are doing the relevent studies for "stage 2" which will determine the viability. Again, i think it will be alot higher in capital and a lot more marginal than people expect. If anyone wants to cite global rare earth projects which are currently selling lathanide based MREC/Carbonates even ones vertically integrated with a feedstock under 3% i'd be interested to read them. For all intensive purposes I think as a rule of thumb you need a higher feed grade or a substantively unique basket such as NTU to be viable.

Back to VML, again i think stage 2 production is 3-4years given the studies have only just commenced and then construction etc. off so realistically yes agree the short term production is there but possible not hugely commercial volumes 1000tpa buys around 5 years, if they ramped up it depletes resource quicker and then potentially a void between stage 1/2 so 3-5y for stage 2 makes sense IMO. I watch with interest as i would potentially be a buyer there and capitalise on the opacity nature and market thirst for a project in production irrespective of economics. I avoided LYC last 5 years, because it was basically a terrible investment in terms of financials. Still didn't stop the market from putting a couple billion dollar valuation on it and so some of these might still be worth a pop - but even if I invested I would continue to maintain my pessimistic nature than 1.5% feed grade is super viable short term.

Just some passing views and as I suggested can make cases for undervaluation based on peer analysis but in the absence of any formalised economics unable to compare a fundamental valuation for either of them on economics.

SF2TH

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You forgot VML's potential secondary income stream - selling video footage to the producers of Ice Road Truckers...