The response from TWE is pretty good in my opinion, which is why...

The response from TWE is pretty good in my opinion, which is why the share price has 'only fallen by 7%' (still trading almost $1 above the lows from the initial call by China into the anti-dumping case). The worst case scenario people had been planning for was 100% ex-China valuations (see other TWE forum), and essentially that meant ex-Asia calculations. I think the more realistic scenario is around 50% ex-Asia, noting that around 1/3rd of Asia segment is Japan etc, and there will be some salvaging of trade to China via US or European vineyards. And this will be for a minimum of 4 months, maximum of 9 months, unless they can whip-up some evidence of dumping - though in reality China will do what it wants, because you can't be dumping while also making massive margins on premium wines.

Really interesting to note from TWE management that are stating up front they will NOT let margins reduce and undercut the brand value by looking to maintain volumes in other markets. This is fundamental to long term shareholder value. Better it is bottled and whacked in the inventory to appreciate, and sell it later when there is value there. Unfortunately this will mean sacrificing some of the FY21 results for better FY22+. As a long term investor, I am totally on board with the strategy.

There is a lot of risk and volatility in this stock. I suspect for the institutions trying to offload exposure and not wanting to hang around for a rebound, it could take them some days/weeks/months to unwind their positions and so could face a period of downward momentum. It's unlikely in my opinion to go in to the $7s for long, and I see some people on HC calling for ridiculous prices like $4-$6. The reality is, there is a lot of interest in the assets of TWE if not the business, and that's worth a fair chunk. Will hope for a cashed up non-Chineese bid to come through to really skyrocket the share price..