"For MND, from observation and from the way the business model...

"For MND, from observation and from the way the business model is evolving, my sense is that mid-cycle EBIT is around the $120m mark"

What if a more normalised mid cycle results in $80m EBIT. Then using the same valuation methodology you described in this thread, results in an equity value of $0.9b which equates to ~$9.5 per share.

(10x$80m+$100m)/95m ~ $9.5 per share

I am struggling to see how a mid cycle EBIT of $120m is a reasonable guestimate, given your graph below clearly shows how they successfully milked the cow during the simultaneous LNG/iron ore construction frenzy, but the yield from the cow has becalmed as the herd relaxed and stopped its stampede.



Yes the surging coal price will feed into and reinforce the surging gas price which will benefit gas plant builders such as MND, but that needs to be balanced against the likely reduced revenues from iron ore construction as that sector cools off.