On your first question, I absolutely agree. The sentiment "Well, the price is so low, there's no point selling now" is one that makes very little sense to me. Regardless of how much my investment has shrunk, if I think the value is likely going to zero, why would I flush what remains down the toilet? Especially here, where I won't even get the consolation of a CGs tax benefit.
On your second para, "the major competitor" is not dying. For all of the recent red ink, the largest players (Teva, Sandoz, Viatris) are still producing gushing rivers of free cash flow. Off memory (I'd have to re check) these three combined don't command even half of the US genetics market. Where there have been some re-structures under Chapter 11 (though not bankruptcies, in the main) they have been in the mid tier players - like the Amneals, Endos etc.
The only players in the industry with commanding market shares, are the wholesalers and the PBMs.
That said, there are pharma co's with relatively strong market positions - as I have indicated. Also, it is true that capacity & capital have withdrawn from the sector. This is the reason I have spent months studying it.
But I see little reason to channel that energy to a plankton that's being buffeted by tsunami-like waves.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
