OK thanks, great video. Very much agrees with my thoughts on...

OK thanks, great video. Very much agrees with my thoughts on where this is ultimately heading. Interesting to know they have a second-hand plant in SA lined up, probably explains why they can build Phase 1 for $30M. Just looked into the June Plant Update release, plan is for capex spend to start sometime first half 2024 (also clear guidance on mining and environmental permits, great).


Question, does anyone know if Phase 1 "demonstration plant' triggers Tranche 4 payment as "commercial production" or are they going to play games around non-commercial production? Can't imagine Rift Valley vendors will be happy with any interp that brings in a lot of free cashflow to pay for Phase 2 but isn;t deemed 'commercial'.

So running at $3M per Qtr excluding and Phase 1 capex, will reduce cash by ~$9M by Apr 2024 (so ~$26m -$9M = $17M)
Only ~$0.5M options expire before 2025, and Bauxite revenue doesn;t kick in 2025, so can;t rely on either for 2024 capex spend.
$30M plus $?? working capital for 3-6 month ramp up before sales revenue hits the bank account, plus $15M Tranche 4, less ~$20M cash after operating expenses by then, leaves approx $25M + ?? ramp-up expenses funding gap for Phase 1 by my logic.

Chicken feed in the scheme of things, and hopefully raised with minimal to no dilution. Regards off-take, is there anywhere outside China that will be ready or willing to take Kanga con by late 2024? Can't see that there is. Only monazite processing plants operational or being built ex-China are all covered by their own mon-con feed or under contract already (Moutain Pass, Lynas, Iluka, Energy Fuels). Obviously the plan is to sign up one or more ex-China RE players to build and operate MREC hydromet plant + downstream facilities for Kanga con. Bit of a horse and cart situation, but much better than some others (eg HAS) hoping to solve the same concentrate off-take conundrum.

Multiple expansions funded by existing production over a long time, or straight to a large Phase 2 expansion once Phase 1 'feasibility study' is proven, co-funded by European and/or Asian downstream players? When does LIN go for the home-run and fund their own downstream MREC plant overseas, or just stick to selling con to European/Asian downstream players, who build their own hydromet plants?

The attraction for LIN to minimise dilution by expanding with staged, cheap mon-con product clear, so long as they don;t give up too much margin to the MREC middlemen. The attraction for a large player to skip the off-take co-funding game and simply take out LIN for vertical control of the supply chain is also obvious. Especially if RE prices remain low and LIN's MC makes it a sitting duck...

All good, GLTAH