Originally posted by aniesbaswedan
Based on presentation
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/space/workshops/2018-SmallSat/Presentations/21.pdf
ok I believe this is very definitive now...
From what I understood of the presentation and my opinion, calculation, DYOR;
From the 5th slide, one could see that
the pearls do in fact need the SAS terminal to have connection, through spectrum, to local gateway and thus servers. The same gateway infrastructure that, whether it is PSTN or internet or even the spectrums themselves, is owned by telcos. Thus I believe then
that confirms my suggestion that SAS must have offtake agreements with telcos that own infrastructure and spectrums. Not just one either, we are talking multiple in many different countries around the world. Akin to telcos like telstra having agreements with satellite company like irridium, etc.
Without such agreements then I believe there is no way for the pearls to connect to the rest of the world. We are talking, no voice call, no messaging, no internet connection, etc.
As for asset tracking, etc, I believe that area is already well catered for by global GPS so that function is highly redundant.
As for 3 Diamonds and its revenues, from the presentation, the 3Ds have operational life of 2 years and I assume that to be its max operational life in terms of commercial viability or maybe even viability in general. Now the diamonds were launched in 23rd of June 2017 so then it is safe to assume it would need to come down on the 23rd of June 2019. Assuming account by Dentbumbo on post number 36706658 is correct then management said that there wouldn't be revenue from the 3Ds until mid 2019. That statement I think is highly misleading considering how the 3Ds are presumably nearing its operational life in exactly mid 2019 based on my understanding of the information derived from the presentation. So based on that then I think it is safe to assume that there would be no significant revenue at all from the 3DS, at least not to the projected figure ever claimed by SAS. So were all of those announcements with regards to 3Ds revenue misleading? My personal view is Yes, absolutely, I don't know about you guys.
As for the pearls and launch schedules, from the presentation, the pearls have operational life of 5 years and I assume that to be its max operational life in terms of commercial viability or maybe even viability in general. So presumably to be safe and maintain commercial viability then the pearls would have to be replaced on the 4th year of them being launched. Since that seems to be the case then there is a very real time window limitation that SAS MUST adhere to.
Theoretically then;
If SAS only launch 20 pearls per year, then on the 4th year SAS would already have to replace the first batch of satellites and then subsequent batches, accordingly, in the coming years. The number of the satellites then would stagnate between 60-80 forever and will never reach above that range.
If SAS plans to launch 40 per year then using the same logic the number would stagnate at around around 120-160 forever.
So what number of pearls would SAS need to launch per year if SAS wants to reach 200 satellites and maintain that number at any given time assuming that a batch would need to be replaced in the 4th year of launch? By my calculation,
the number is at least 67-68 pearls and that number I believe is non negotiable by means of mathematics and not opinion.
By my calculation then,
How much money would SAS need in 2019? Also assuming that each pearls cost 750k to 1 million then, just for the pearls alone, SAS would need 51 to 68 million and I believe the numbers are non-negotiable.
Then add at least 12 million operational cost then we have a total of at least 63-80 million in 2019.
So then assuming SAS needs 63-80 million in 2019 then I think it is assured that there is going to be successive CRs beyond expected upcoming one. By my logic if SAS got 20 million then they would still need 43-60 million in 2019. As for self funding? From my understanding there will be no revenue from the 3Ds...so I do not think there will any revenue at all in 2019. So another CR beyond the expected upcoming one is almost a certainty to me unless SAS somehow manage to secure that 63 to 80 million.
.....oh I think it is also interesting to realize that the amount of 63-80 million I calculated is actually recurring operational expenditure after the 4th year of launch of the first batch of 68.
So how long would it take for the constellation to start making profit if ever?
All in my opinion do your own research.
Totally agree, all the institutional investors and even the BoD with their years of experience and qualifications completely overlooked this.
Amazing that they all invested their money and countless hours of work into a business plan that is blatantly going to fail!
It's totally amazing that some special individual (i.e you) has been able to calculate and identify a non profitable business model, I mean wow not even the CEO and CFO have been able to put together what you have, amazing! And wow you don't even know what contracts are in place, pricing structure, revenue pipeline, supplier agreements prices, gross margins etc etc but yet here you are able to calculate a business model that is going to fail. Again, Amazing!
