It would take a good 12 months to wind the company up and return all capital available, regardless of tranche 2 timing.
I certainly think they will cover all bases with the Plan of Action update we should expect.
1. Cost saving measures
2. A distribution / return of capital plan (not a dividend).
3. A timeline for a potential transaction
4. Wind up to occur if point 3. not achieved
For point 4. I would expect if no proposed transaction has been put to shareholders to vote by tranche 2 receipt then the company should be wound up / shell company sold.
With the above the shares will trade and will trade below cash backing for sure.
But as it gets closer to the wind up time the cash backing will certainly close up the SP as the arbitrage trade will start tighten.
Those wanting wind up, you will be waiting until late 2025 to get all your cash anyway.
Those wanting to sell out get the opportunity.
If by chance a share price accretive transaction occurs everyone would have had the opportunity to partake if they still hold their shares.
I will be honest I doubt a transaction will occur. There are no miracle, shovel ready, cheap assets waiting for Leo to discover. IMO.
Below are some rough numbers on cash, work capital / wind up, and the 1.5% revenue carrying a discount for a sale.
Just a couple of ? marks on this is the share of the JV cash, and the $5m balance of the 5% transaction. Thats not mentioned anywhere I can see.
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