Rex minerals is up 62% today on a takeover offer.
It recently had $22mill in the bank but it needed pre-production capital of A$854mill to get its project into production. Working capital requirements ahead of production would likely have been tens of millions. That seems like a big ask?
What does Minbos need to get into production?
Around a further US$10mill for capex and a US$10mill working capital facility.
That is a very small remaining funding requirement.
Total pre-production capex of US$40mill ($26mill already spent) versus US$202mill after tax NPV prior to capex savings of US$10mill plus US$28mill reduction in stage 2 capex effectively adds US$38mill to the NPV, bringing it up to around US$240mill. That's before accounting for the large increases in years 1-7 production forecasts post Carrinho offtake binding MOU.
That's a big difference in after tax NPV vs capex at a ratio of over 5:1 for MNB and very unusual. Rex Mineral's after tax NPV/capex ratio is more typical at closer to 1:1 - $854mill capex vs $847 NPV (midpoint case).
MNB market cap is $43mill.
AL3 was also a very poor performer since its peak around years ago but after one announcement last week, the sp has risen strongly. It was 6.5c three weeks ago.
The announcement that has seen the mc rise to $88mill?
"a ~A$1.1 million1 sale of a 2600 Edition ARCEMY® system (“ARCEMY® system”)" "The purchase of the ARCEMY® System also includes an initial one-year service and maintenance contract. Establishing annual recurring service and maintenance contracts is a key strategic objective within the AML3D US ‘Scale-up’ strategy to drive revenue growth."
A $1.1mill sale on its own isn't likely to push the sp and market cap up that much but I'm guessing the market likes the chances of future sales to the same customer - the US navy. I think MNB's funding news opening up 20 plus years of much larger sales should also be well received.
AL3 4 year chart.
AL3 1 year chart showing the difference a single announcement can make. Up 5 fold in 3 months on a $1mill sale.
