"Now if I ask for your honest opinion about what would happen to the sp if the 2025 production is missed, would you offer one?"
I actually think that is already being priced in at anything below around 7c. 7c might be about right if production is around 2-3 years out. That's based on the mc at 7c on expected number of shares on issue at production, the low remaining capex and the project after tax NPV. You just need to look at how much upside there is at production, work out the annualised return to get to that level and if it's better than say 30% per year, then you will get a strong return if prepared to wait for it. That doesn't mean that I don't think the sp can go lower on a missed 2025 production because stocks can get heavily overvalued and heavily undervalued. It's already undervalued IMO but that doesn't guarantee that it can't get more undervalued. I'm looking forward to when it gets overvalued. I'm confident that that time will come. What I'm not so confident of is a missed 2025 timeline for production. I can see a risk of a few months more delay based on past form but I don't see a good reason to expect much more than that. I certainly see a few months delay as being priced in as well at 5c. I'm hoping that the market has it wrong and funding will not be too far out.
MNB Price at posting:
4.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
