MOZ mosaic brands limited

Ann: MOZ - FY20 Investor Presentation, page-3

  1. 1,103 Posts.
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    I actually agree. I considered selling yesterday but I've come to the realisation this is still a buy.

    They had $57m in EBITDA during the most turbulent year in perhaps over a decade, increased from PCP too.
    Sure 500 stores are closing down.
    In conjunction with the significant cost savings for the first half of fy21, other expense improvements to flow through the year(s) and the continual successful transition to online, I'm pretty darn confident they'll achieve at least 70% EBITDA of fy20 for fy21.

    I'm scratching my head as to how this business is currently only worth a $48m market cap with my very conservative estimate of $40m EBITDA expected for fy21?
    This business was worth $2.50 before COVID hit, these prices are identical to the price seen during the worst part of the covid selldown, where fear was rife.

    Having prepared some quick valuation models I can tell this SP should not be down here and will eventually be scooped up by instos if the retail market doesn't realise first. Might need to be abit patient before seeing this back at what I believe is a fair value of between 1.30-1.60 . If they can achieve a restructure similar to CCX then on a like for like basis from revenue, EBITDA and marketcap, there's a chance this company goes back to $2-3 this time next year. Serious short term 2-3 bagger potential and more bags medium term.

    I just wish my average wasn't in the mid 60s as I don't think we will see these cheaper prices for long.

    IMO anyway, DYOR.

    Last edited by JAar: 26/08/20
 
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