Ann: MRG HMS - Nhacutse & Poiombo Updated MRE, page-13

Hey, I get your probably losing money buying high and stopping out low on this one but no need to shoot the messenger. If you're going to take pot shots at me, well how about at least making it sensible. "Used car salesman", "try’s to sell you a Ford Capri ! Ha Ha Ha"... do you even get I'm doing the opposite by warning people against buying a lemon?

There's an old saying in poker relevant to the ASX imo... if you don't know who the muggsy punter is at the table, then it's probably you. Big difference is there can only be a few mugs at the poker table any one time, but no limit to the mugs in a speccy stock. Comfort in numbers but no safety. Money to be made but only by those get in and out early, usually the ones leading the lemmings up the pump and over cliff edge. Was that you buying the pump before the CR?, you buying the SF2TH pump after first N & P MRE release? and/or buying the assemblage pump? Buying high and selling low would explain the anger and resentment towards my posting...



Now I haven't posted Sell sentiment for a very long time now, i understand this is a great trading stock sitting at not much higher than bull-market shell like valuations. If they picked up a lithium project in Africa you would probably make a motsa despite whatever dilution came with it. Those flipping out the bi-annual 0.8c CR placement into 50-100% price spikes shortly after are certainly doing very well ... point is some are making good money out of the news flow and it's not me. I'm just focussing on the project and giving punters some understanding of what the technicals really mean, in case they are looking at long term investing not trading.


I updated my Corridor Revenue spreadsheet given all the new assemblage and MRE's dropping lately. This one is for KM, because KM has the highest grade starter pit at modest strip (~0.25:1 based on MRE diagram and sectional interp) lifting mine grade up by ~0.5% THM from approx 6.0 to 6.5% THM. Critical variables are the 'facts' from the KM Final Met Work release (https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/46819589/single) which details how much tonnes of product, recoveries and product quality to expect. I back calc'd the met work composite at 5.33% THM but used 6.5% on the fair assumption mineral deportment is fixed while tonnage changes proportional to THM% grade (ie 10% increase in THM = a 10% increase in product at same quality). Likewise, a 10% change in VHM will approx = a 10% change in the tonnes (LTR) or value (NMC) respectively.

No way are they getting higher than 6.5% THM beyond first couple of years imo, and LOM looks to be more like 6% unless substantial stripping is included. Too much going on to walk through toady but plenty for any(?) interested in fundamentals instead of short term trading. Note that the non-mag con (NMC) is an insignificant contributor due to revenue due to very low tonnage, low zircon and Hi-Ti contents, only "Standard Grade" zircon probably due to high U&Th above premium spec, very low monazite credits (approx 2% Mon in NMC assuming CeO2 is 48% of 60% TREO). Also interesting, the met work composite for KM back calcualtes to a 1.45% Zr in THM (not 1.2% as per latest MRE) and 0.65% Rutile in THM (not 1.2% as per latest MRE).... funny because 1.45% Zr and 0.65% Rutile are very close to what the Apr 2020 KM MRE estimated based on historic composites

Anyway, I'm sure you can join the dots of what this sort of revenue means to a very large 20Mtpa plant capex running at US$80Mpa cash cost ($4/t ore mined) which looks about right looking at other recent African miners and developers (assuming a port gets built of course).

Good luck