Just pigging backing off one of my previous posts.
Has been a disappointing hold S/P wise for sure. I'm still holding - have bought some small amounts at 0.4c feeling that the RvR is fairly low.
Currently at 5-6M EV. Which seems pretty low considering they've shown an economic resource.
My comment regarding viability remain as they did in the post above and that capital hurdle will be the major one.
I think the strategy now becomes 2 fold.
1) They need to considerably turn the dial on the IRR/NPV such that the numbers are a little more compelling.
2) Look for offtake/JV to develop the asset.
I think an updated SS will occur somewhere around mid year and maybe if the NPV can be more attractive enough and the capital (as a percentage therein) not as scary. I did have a similar project FYI which was 10m MC and delivered a similar NPV. Market didn't think it would get developed - eventually they secured and offtake and went on a fairly decent run (1000%+). Not saying that will occur here but 12-18m MC wouldn't be stupid - there are shells worth more and that's 100-200% ROI from today.
Other than that - i think maybe some exploration/drilling results on the other uranium/REO tenements they acquired to put some interest into the company. That way they can develop the asset in the background.
Anyways below is chart on weekly timescale - i'm trying to ascertain if we've bottomed out technically.
I've drawn some line where the MACD and stochastics were this oversold. 3/4 correlated with a major low before going for a bit of a run. The one that broke down being the last time.
First step technically would be the S/P getting out the channel and then ideally above 0.6c line.
Not moving on my stock at this price, the way i allocate is such that a few stocks can go to zero. In this instance i think the upside outweighs future dilution so will hold probably for another 6-9months.
This will give an opportunity for a revised SS and or some sort of progress on the other tenements. That probably means another CR between now and then. Beyond that i'll either cut the loses or let it dilute to zero.
I think they may need to consider consolidation unless this next cycle of news is enough to get it out of the 0.3c - 0.4c range. the 25% price swing on a pip means the S/P doesn't go anywhere unless there's massive news to re-rate up or down. Would prefer a 10:1 such that the liquidity can return and investors can move their shares in and out a bit easier without the 25% price swing.
Anyways that's my view;
Consolidate + CR.
-Progress the HMS for upgraded Scoping Study and economics and look for JV
-Exploration into new tenement to inject some interest
That's enough to potentially bring outside interest and also give opportunity for 100-200% ROI given the 6M EV. i.e. -> 20M EV upon SS upgrade and exploration interest.
My thoughts.
Hope everyone is well.
SF2TH
(20min delay)
