@rastes, you might want to read my posts on MRQ as a holder (and those views are the same as those I post in LTR as a non-holder btw):
1. IMO, there will be no TO in the next 12 months of MRQ, so that will not be a driver of SP.
2. What will be a driver of SP is ensuring that you continue to tick the boxes of what needs to be done in the next 12 months to 2 years on the road to mining, and making sure if you have the resource that you can be in mining within the next two years to three years.
3. None of my posts in MRQ have ever specified where I think the SP will be next week or next month or even the next 6 months etc etc - my last one was simply about debate. I have said, if MRQ tick the boxes at point 2, SP will trend upwards on a FA basis. In terms of TA there will be overruns and underruns to the FA trend upwards over the next years. That is what happens with explorers hence the free carry strategies I prefer this end of the market - why it happens, well SP is not driven predominantly by FA events for explorers, like they are for producers where P/E ratios decide things, whereas as an explorer TA takes hold as well as short termers/day traders enter and exit based on who is the next best thing etc etc
4. I will be happy with a SP of 6c to 10c by
December 2020 from an FA point of view as means boxes are been properly ticked. By December 2021 SP will be higher provided by end December 2021 they have already done FID and mining construction has started etc.
5. In terms of 4, things can change and those FA based SP predictions are based on drilling confirming a large resource in the measured and indicated category of the JORC Code 2012 as cannot mine an inferred resource and that the supply/demand conditions in the market give scope for MRQ to enter the market in 2022. Obviously if MRQ cannot enter a market in 2022, or it does not prove up a sufficient measured and indicated resource then the SP predictions at 4 will not happen.
6. Anyone predicting 10c by March 2020 will probably sell by end end March because SP is not sustainable at that level IMO, hence thh overshoot scenarios you see on TA and thereafter realigning with what a FA based SP would be at that point in time (given where mining needs to be). For instance look at LTR when the SP hit 17c (and even AVZ when it hit 30c) - that was an overshoot of TA to where the FA price should be (noting for AVZ its overshoot was at a time when the lithium price outlook and demand/supply scenarios was even more bullish than what they are today). Called market realignment, and hindsight is a wonderful thing LOL.
7. The announcements are pretty clear what the performance shares are about for MRQ so not sure why we are even debating that btw.
All IMO
(20min delay)