MRQ 14.3% 0.4¢ mrg metals limited

Ann: MRG Metals Investor Webinar & Company Update, page-16

  1. 3,937 Posts.
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    Thanks for that. Yes there was a couple little snippets that have allowed me to hone in on a potential NPV.
    Confirmation of throughput, capex and LoM. Post #:56138018 has original details and assumptions

    Can now omit the 12.5mtpa case and maybe lock in on the 17.5mtpa.
    Additionally capex figure reduce by around 25M compared to what I had used.
    If 10Y economic life is being presented we can therefore expect around 175-200mT.

    Few other comments. Profitability is assumed assumed to be half the revenue ~ $4-4.5 p mined/t
    Assemblages built from a 7.5% grade using ~6.2% cutoff.
    Using a 225usd/t ilmenite price.
    80% recoveries.

    Below is just the 17.5mtpa example but revenues for the 15mtpa and 20mtpa use same assumptions just more revenue and deduce opex to get profit for input into DCF model.

    17.5mtpa example.PNG

    Omitted the 12.5mtpa case. Also removed the high end tonnages as 10Y LoM if quoted means it will be somewhere around here, but obviously upside with more resources being added/proven.

    MRQ SS predictions.PNG


    All figures in AUD. Capex assumed to rise linearly across throughput.

    I believe we could yield around 275-390M AUD in the NPV.
    Assume lower end midpoint of ~300M AUD.
    Current MC 17M
    MC to NPV = 5.6%

    Fair value post SS release I think is roughly 10-20% SS NPV.
    Therefore around 35-60M AUD fairish valued.
    With offtakes this fair value can increase to around 20-30%
    In production 2024 you start to reflect NPV thus i'm aligned to the quoted market cap in production of ~300M should the economics be largely in line with what's presented.

    Noting the ilmenite pricing is much higher than current but is more accurate for LoM projections.

    SF2TH
 
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