Apologies in advance for trash talking a share I don't hold (I have dogs of my own - see PSZ) but this is how I reverse-engineer the announcement:
- If they need to borrow money to just to complete the harvest then presumably either they had exhausted their cash, or were in breach of covenants and the bank had locked the funding, or both.
- The non-disclosure of the "certain conditions" to the accelerated draw down of funds is concerning
- If MRG is starting "to explore partnership arrangements" to develop the arable land at Nangiloc that suggests it has either has just lost access to funding previously intended for that purpose, or needs the money for something else, or the business case has changed (perhaps due to the high costs of water).
- If it is raising $20m it will lose close enough to 5% in transaction costs if the offer is underwritten. $20m less (1) $1m transaction costs (2) $4m repayment of the accelerated funding (3) $10m paydown by 30 June (4) $500k owed to Arrow...leaves the company with $4.5m. The forecast FY20 EBITDA *loss* was $5m to $8m per updated guidance. Some part of that EBITDA loss will have already been funded though, so whilst it may further reduce the $4.5m it may not necessarily absorb all of it.
My guess is that the bank has restricted future access to funding so that it cannot be used to develop Nangiloc. That will help to conserve cash, so may be a good thing.
It's not clear what cash the company will have on 1 July 2020 and how much it will need in FY21. Presumably they will be working on a new plan to reduce those forecast losses.
Finally, part of the Arrow settlement is that Arrow gets 5% of the company post equity raise. That will put a far bit of pressure on the issue price and so likely that it will be heavily dilutive for those who don't participate.
All guesses, based on the gaps in the announcement.
MRG Price at posting:
5.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
