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$3.06 mesoblast limited

Ann: MSB Enters Into Cardiovascular Alliance For China With Tasly, page-204

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ddwn

13,028 Posts.

3564

19/07/18

17:24

Post #: 34457001
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Originally posted by Treed ↑

Just for fun, some wild speculation as I like to do from time to time. You might want to double check my sums or assumptions.

The base figure I'm using for heart failure is from a translated page 3 of the Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. disclosure document,

The prevalence of heart failure in China is 1.3%, and it is estimated that there are at least 10 million patients with different degrees.

So I will take that at 10% of 10 million, 1 million people who might need treatment to begin with, at a fairly conservative, I hope, $10,000 per treatment dose, should only be once per patient if it works as planned.

That gives $10,000,000,000 or $10 billion, in your currency of choice, to treat 1 million people per annum and we know the royalty is double digits so I will take the lowest at 10%.

That makes One Billion dollars payable to MSB.

Would that make a difference to the share price?

And there are probably some other products too, in other countries.

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Whoa!
What would the MC/ SP be on this alone?
In the meantine, I'll enjoy the ride, so let get over $2 first

MSB Price at posting: $1.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last $3.06		Change 0.010(0.33%)		Mkt cap ! $3.887B

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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4	86364	3.040
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3.070	77059	3
3.080	99913	7
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3.100	116493	14
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