If you read some of my debut posts on this stock earlier this year, they were based on the very quest to learn how others valued MSB and what the basis is for MSB today being a $1.5bn company. And why not a $2.0bn company? Or a $5bn or even a $10bn company.
(or, for that matter, why not $1.0bn? Or $500m?)
One of the most strident arguments made concerning MSB's "value" makes reference to the Cephalon transaction in 2010. The trouble that I have with that as a benchmark is that it might have been completely misguided.
Just because some executives decided to commit to a transaction almost half a decade ago, doesn't validate a valuation today. Company boards undertake bad acquisitions all the time (more so than not, in my experience).
Similarly, without knowing very much at all about the Alios deal, I can say that I tend to pay little need to such events as reliable determinants of value.
Inferring Company A might be acquired for a value of x because someone paid y for Company B smacks to me of a degree of hope.
And just like Hope is not a very good basis for winning at the roulette tables, it is also not a very good basis for investing.
But, I am willing to hear the argument for the affirmative, all the while reserving my rights to disagree with it.
So, feel free - if you are so inclined - to tell me why yo think the Alios situation draws some sort of line under MSB's valuation.
MSB Price at posting:
$4.18 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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