Madam,
Easy to blame the "manipulators" but not sure that's the total reason for the relative softness in the SP. Certainly, the opinionated GP from Otago has generated a reasonable doubt about the efficacy of MSB's adult stem cell therapies but I get the distinct feeling he just doesn't get it. (I also understand some of his behind the scenes actions have annoyed and surprised MSB's management as well.)
Whatever, I believe the total short position in the stock now stands at less than 10% so not really a major factor. The free float in MSB is pretty limited if you look at the share register, as the way I understand it is that Mr Itescu holds over 20%, Teva holds around 17%, the Capital Group holds over 7%, and Thorney (the only major Australian institution) holds 4.5%) The Thorney holding is interesting in that, through Alex Waislitz, you have a true contrarian investor who is not constricted by the mediocrity prevailing in the Australian institutional market, where not one major institution dares to stray from being an index-hugger. Great investing requires a lot of delayed gratification, something which is lost on the planks running major sums of money in Australia.
So my belief is that the huge differential between the current valuation and the valuations placed on the company by independent organisations has a lot to do with the reticence of local institutions to break the mould. This situation is not unique to Australia of course. Patent expirations have forced big pharma to look to the bio-tech sector to fill the void, and I need only refer you to Roche/Genentech, Pfizer/Wyeth, Merck/Schering-Plough over the last 5 years or so to realise what astronomical sums have been paid for a technology which provides a new revenue stream for these guys. I remember reading a quote a while back, talking about Genentech's human growth hormone which basically said.."the technology is real, the commercial potential is real, but is the valuation??" Roche paid around $50bn eventually, and guess who was intimately involved in the transaction?....Bill Burns, now an MSB board member.
I don't claim to fully understand the regenerative medicine sector, but what I do understand is that MSB are horribly mispriced, one way or the other. And I acknowledge the wisdom of Charlie Munger when he said "Real knowledge is knowing you don't know anything."
MSB Price at posting:
$4.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)