1000 patients is going to be a more reasonable number than 3500. Approx 50% of patients who undergo a bone marrow transplant will go on to develop GVHD. Not all of these will require treatment because some can be treated with corticosteroids. However, a high proportion fail the steroid treatment, and the GVHD is a dire illness, with a very low chance of survival, so some who are kinda going ok on steroids but not great are going to want the Temcell treatment. The Temcell treatment is a life saving treatment, anyone who develops GVHD will probably prefer to go straight for it over steroids. My heart goes out to those poor patients who are currently suffering from GVHD right now but can't access treatment until February. It must be a terrible wait.
Madamswer, not sure about the costs on this one. Because MSB's revenue from this is royalties, I'm guessing JCR bears the costs? Anyone with any other views? But yes MSB have been reticent on their likely future costs of manufacturing. For their other products in the pipeline then this will of course be important, but on this one I'm not sure because I think that risk has been passed on to JCR
Even if the net revenue after costs is only say $15mill, to me this is a great outcome for MSB. It is enough money to very much extend the runway, and if it starts saving lives then other countries will start considering it much more seriously. To me it is not so much the immediate revenue (which is obviously still very important, after all we just raised capital and oh at what a cost), but more it is the possibility of the creating the critical mass for a self sustaining business. It buys time, it opens the door to other countries to also use this treatment for GVHD (with associated revenues, much larger than just Japan), and it gives regulators like the TGA and FDA the chance to see real clinical treatment of a serious illness with stem cells, outside of the very controlled environment of the clinical trial world. The revenues from GVHD will be very small (tiny??) compared to revenues from MSB's other applications, the GVHD market is just so small. So the importance to me isn't so much the revenues, its what having a product in market potentially enables to happen next that is more important to me.
Anyway, I hope everyone has been coping ok over the last week or so. Fingers crossed for a nice Nasdaq reaction tonight.
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