You also mention "TPS will probably come in at $45m this...

You also mention "TPS will probably come in at $45m this financial year"... This is probably pretty close to the mark but a loaded comment. Look at when Mgp was aquired by qpme. I think you'll find Q3 + Q4 (financial yr) TPS will come in at @$35m? A pretty good increase for <1yr post acquisition? Not counting chickens before they hatch, but there's also 7 additional wells that 'should' come online sometime around the end of the yr-early next yr and allow tps dual cycle.
My reply to your comment "It's not clear how the additional capacity will generate significant upside over the next few yrs" is that i'd suggest you spend a little time reading through qpme announcements and do a little DD... It's not rocket science.. rough opex is known, aemo prices are known... Spend a little time crunching the numbers and it will then become clear to you