Ann: MST Financial O&G Webinar Presentation, page-5

Hard to believe they'll get to $100m revenue - TPS will probably come in at $45m this financial year, averaging $210/MWh at 10% utilisation.

It's not clear how the additional capacity will generate significant upside over the next few years. Maximum utilisation hit 65% on 5 days in the past year, so further capacity will decrease utilisation rates rather than a revenue uplift.

It looks more like gold plating the gas strategy in anticipation of future peaking demand - but in reality that's going to take some time. Eraring is the next retirement (2800MW), and this has been pushed out to 2027. Callide B (700MW) is the next in 2028.

No doubt gas will be the saviour with any failure in the transition, but it might take some time for QPM to benefit.

https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/YABULU/?range=1y&interval=1d