Item 2.12 using concentrate premium shows a profit of AUD $80-$130 per ton based on the mid range concentrate price and a slightly higher exchange rate that they have used and allowing for some costs to get it to the Esperance Port (CFR). Assuming base case $80t and we end up with 19% ownership (currently29%) and 9b shares on issue (more than currently on issue) then this gets the earnings to about 2 cents per share or 3 cents per share at 29% ownership. If you assume a PE of 12 then the val comes in at 24 cents as a base case valuation or 36 cents if no further dilution of the ownership…however….the next big question(s) is how it gets funded to get the BFS and mine up and running and what are the timelines. Ultimately, what percentage ownership do we end up with and how many shares on issue. This is really where you want to use debt to finance this otherwise it just destroys the valuation per share. It’s hard to get too excited when we don’t know the cost of the BFS, how its paid for, when its expected to be done and then how long after that till we have a producing mine.
LCY Price at posting:
1.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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